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IMF predicts near 60 per cent economic growth for Guyana

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Tuesday said overall economic growth is projected to be 57.8 per cent this year for Guyana as the country continues to recover from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic-induced recession in 2020, and protracted political transition, non-oil economic growth.

The IMF executive board, which has concluded its annual bilateral discussions with Guyana, said the country started the recovery process in 2021, despite being negatively impacted by floods.

“Inflation increased markedly since 2021 owing to the floods and supply-side disruptions, as well as continually rising fuel and food prices. Oil production has increased significantly. Oil GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to grow over 100 per cent in 2022, and by about 30 per cent on average per year during 2023-26.

The Washington-based financial institution said oil production has the potential to transform profoundly Guyana’s economy with “overall real GDP growth rate is projected to be 57.8 per cent in 2022.

“Guyana’s commercially recoverable petroleum reserves are expected to reach over 11 billion barrels, one of the highest levels per capita in the world. This could help Guyana build up substantial fiscal and external buffers to absorb shocks while addressing infrastructure gaps and human development needs,” the IMF said, noting that the main downside risks to the outlook include volatility in global oil prices, a slowing global economy, or rapid increases in investment which could lead to macroeconomic imbalances, while upside risks include higher global oil prices and additional gas and oil discoveries.

The IMF executive welcomed the broad-based economic recovery in 2021, and the unprecedented high real GDP growth, supported by a steep rise in oil production and accommodative policies. They said the increasing oil production could help transform the economy, address development needs, and build substantial buffers to absorb shocks.

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“Nevertheless, considering the potential challenges related to volatility in global oil prices and effective management of natural resources, they highlighted the need for continued prudent policies and structural reforms, assisted by Fund technical assistance, to avoid build-up of macroeconomic vulnerabilities, ensure inclusive growth and intergenerational equity, as well as address structural weaknesses and climate challenges.”

The IMF also welcomed the significant decline in public debt and favourable debt dynamics going forward, with the authorities’ commitment to maintaining debt sustainability and stressed the importance of anchoring fiscal policy in a medium-term framework.

They welcomed the restraint in using oil revenues before the passage of the recent amendments of the Natural Resource Fund Act and encouraged continued prudent management of oil revenues. The IMF directors called for moderately ramping up public investment by constraining the annual non-oil overall fiscal balance to not exceed the expected oil transfers. They also encouraged the authorities to continue improving the targeting of social spending.

They agreed with the authorities that exchange rate stability serves Guyana’s current needs best and emphasised the importance of taking measures to further develop and deepen financial and foreign exchange markets, as the oil production increases.

They saw merit in revising the monetary policy framework over the medium to long-term to ensure it is well suited for the economy’s needs, and that it allows more flexibility in the exchange rate to absorb shocks and help maintain competitiveness.

The IMF executive directors commended the authorities’ efforts to maintain financial stability and promote financial inclusion and welcomed the progress in implementing the 2016 FSAP recommendations and the commitment to fully implement the recently strengthened AML/CFT framework, while encouraging further efforts in this area, in particular, to strengthen the regulation of digital payments.

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REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

(CONSULTING SERVICES – INDIVIDUAL SELECTION)

 

OECS MSME Guarantee Facility Project

Loan No.: IDA-62670, IDA-62660, IDA-62640, IBRD-88830, IDA-62650

Assignment Title: Senior Operating Officer (SOO)

Reference No. KN-ECPCGC-207852-CS-INDV

 

The Governments of Antigua and Barbuda, Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines have received financing in the amount of US$10 million equivalent from the World Bank towards the cost of establishing a partial credit guarantee scheme, and they intend to apply part of the proceeds to payments for goods, and consulting services to be procured under this project. 

The consultant will serve as the “Senior Operating Officer (SOO)” for the ECPCGC and should possess extensive knowledge of MSME lending with some direct experience lending to Micro, small and medium-sized businesses, knowledge of the internal control processes necessary for a lending operation and the ability to design and implement risk mitigation procedures. The ideal candidate should possess an Undergraduate Degree from a reputable college or university, preferably in Business, Accounting, Banking or related field, with a minimum of 5 years’ experience in lending, inclusive of MSME lending. The initial employment period will be for two years on a contractual basis. Renewal of the contract will be subject to a performance evaluation at the end of the contractual period. The assignment is expected to begin on September 30th, 2021.  The consultant will report directly to the Chief Executive Officer of the ECPCGC.

The detailed Terms of Reference (TOR) for the assignment can be viewed by following the attached link below. 

 

https://bit.ly/3iVannm

 

The Eastern Caribbean Partial Credit Guarantee Corporation (ECPCGC) now invites eligible “Consultants” to indicate their interest in providing the Services. Interested Consultants should provide information demonstrating that they have:

  • An Undergraduate Degree from a reputable college or university, preferably in Business, Finance, Banking or related field; and
  • Minimum of 5 years’ experience in MSME lending. Applicants should also have:
  • The ability to design and implement risk management procedures 
  • Extensive knowledge of MSME lending with some direct experience lending to small and medium-sized businesses
  • Extensive knowledge of MSME banking operations
  • Knowledge of the internal controls necessary for a lending operation and the ability to design and implement risk management procedures
  • Experience developing and presenting information in public, including responding to questions in real-time
  • Experience lending to MSMEs located in the ECCU
  • Knowledge of marketing and communicating with the MSME sector
  • Ability to draft procedures to be used in a lending operation
  • Familiarity with the mechanics of a loan guarantee program
  • Exceptional written, oral, interpersonal, and presentation skills, and
  • Proficiency in the use of Microsoft Office suite.

The attention of interested Individual Consultants is drawn to Section III, Paragraphs 3.14, 3.16, and 3.17 of the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers July 2016, [revised November 2017] (“Procurement Regulations”), setting forth the World Bank’s policy on conflict of interest. A Consultant will be selected in accordance with the Approved Selection Method for Individual Consultants set out in the clause 7.34 of the World Bank Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers. 

 

Further information can be obtained at the address below during office hours 0800 to 1700 hours:

Eastern Caribbean Partial Credit Guarantee Corporation

Brid Rock, Basseterre,

St. Kitts.

Expressions of interest must be delivered in a written form by e-mail by August 11th, 2021, to [email protected]

 

For further information, please contact:

Carmen Gomez-Trigg                                                            Bernard Thomas

Chief Executive Officer                                                          Chief Financial Officer

Tel: 868-620-8144                                                                  Tel: 869-765-2385

Email: [email protected]                                          [email protected]