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  • Hurricane season could turn ‘hyperactive’ amid unprecedented conditions, new outlook warns

Hurricane season could turn ‘hyperactive’ amid unprecedented conditions, new outlook warns

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(USA Today) – Top forecasters from Colorado State University upgraded their hurricane predictions for 2023 and are now calling for a “borderline hyperactive” season in the Atlantic basin, with as many as nine hurricanes expected to form. CLICK HERE TO JOIN OUR WHATSAPP GROUP FOR NEWS UPDATES.

The upgrade is due primarily to extremely warm ocean water in the Atlantic where storms like to form, forecasters said.

The warm Atlantic should counteract the hurricane-snuffing impacts of El Niño.

“Large swaths of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are at record warm levels, favoring Atlantic hurricane activity,” Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach tweeted Thursday.

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“This anomalous warmth is why CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecast has increased, despite likely robust El Niño.”Hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin – which consists of the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico – has been quiet since Tropical Storms Bret and Cindy formed in late June.

How many hurricanes are now expected in 2023 Atlantic season?

The CSU team now predicts 18 named storms this season, of which nine will be hurricanes. Of those nine, four are expected to be major hurricanes – those with a Saffir-Simpson category of 3-5 and sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.

The updated forecast is an increase from the 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes Colorado State predicted on June 1.

The forecast includes four storms that already formed: an unnamed subtropical storm in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June.

Hot oceans, hyperactive hurricane seasons

Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic, where hurricanes are often born, are tracking well ahead of previous hyperactive hurricane seasons, Klotzbach said. And typically, warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic fuel more hurricanes.

In the eastern Atlantic, temperatures have been about 1.8 degrees higher than the 1961-1990 average.

In addition, newly published data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service documented “exceptionally warm” ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic with “extreme” marine heat waves near Ireland, the U.K., and in the Baltic Sea.

Looking for analogs

There appear to be few past years like this one, Klotzbach said. “There really aren’t any great analogs to the current situation of record warm Atlantic combined with a likely moderate/strong El Niño,” he told USA TODAY.

“Most of our analog years were El Niño years, when the Atlantic wasn’t nearly as warm as it is now.”

Worryingly, one of the analog years to 2023 is the notorious 2005 season, which included Hurricane Katrina. “We selected 2005 as it was one of the few recent ‘hot Atlantic’ years that didn’t have La Niña conditions,” Klotzbach explained.

Major hurricane landfalls possible

According to the updated forecast, the probability of a major hurricane hitting the following coastal areas is:

  • Entire continental U.S. coastline: 50% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
  • U.S. East Coast, including Florida south and east of Cedar Key: 25% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
  • Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west and north of Cedar Key, Florida: westward to Brownsville – 32% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 27%).

It only takes one

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, Colorado State said.

“They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted,” the university said in a statement.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, and the busiest months are August through October. The peak of the season is Sept. 10.

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REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

(CONSULTING SERVICES – INDIVIDUAL SELECTION)

 

OECS MSME Guarantee Facility Project

Loan No.: IDA-62670, IDA-62660, IDA-62640, IBRD-88830, IDA-62650

Assignment Title: Senior Operating Officer (SOO)

Reference No. KN-ECPCGC-207852-CS-INDV

 

The Governments of Antigua and Barbuda, Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines have received financing in the amount of US$10 million equivalent from the World Bank towards the cost of establishing a partial credit guarantee scheme, and they intend to apply part of the proceeds to payments for goods, and consulting services to be procured under this project. 

The consultant will serve as the “Senior Operating Officer (SOO)” for the ECPCGC and should possess extensive knowledge of MSME lending with some direct experience lending to Micro, small and medium-sized businesses, knowledge of the internal control processes necessary for a lending operation and the ability to design and implement risk mitigation procedures. The ideal candidate should possess an Undergraduate Degree from a reputable college or university, preferably in Business, Accounting, Banking or related field, with a minimum of 5 years’ experience in lending, inclusive of MSME lending. The initial employment period will be for two years on a contractual basis. Renewal of the contract will be subject to a performance evaluation at the end of the contractual period. The assignment is expected to begin on September 30th, 2021.  The consultant will report directly to the Chief Executive Officer of the ECPCGC.

The detailed Terms of Reference (TOR) for the assignment can be viewed by following the attached link below. 

 

https://bit.ly/3iVannm

 

The Eastern Caribbean Partial Credit Guarantee Corporation (ECPCGC) now invites eligible “Consultants” to indicate their interest in providing the Services. Interested Consultants should provide information demonstrating that they have:

  • An Undergraduate Degree from a reputable college or university, preferably in Business, Finance, Banking or related field; and
  • Minimum of 5 years’ experience in MSME lending. Applicants should also have:
  • The ability to design and implement risk management procedures 
  • Extensive knowledge of MSME lending with some direct experience lending to small and medium-sized businesses
  • Extensive knowledge of MSME banking operations
  • Knowledge of the internal controls necessary for a lending operation and the ability to design and implement risk management procedures
  • Experience developing and presenting information in public, including responding to questions in real-time
  • Experience lending to MSMEs located in the ECCU
  • Knowledge of marketing and communicating with the MSME sector
  • Ability to draft procedures to be used in a lending operation
  • Familiarity with the mechanics of a loan guarantee program
  • Exceptional written, oral, interpersonal, and presentation skills, and
  • Proficiency in the use of Microsoft Office suite.

The attention of interested Individual Consultants is drawn to Section III, Paragraphs 3.14, 3.16, and 3.17 of the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers July 2016, [revised November 2017] (“Procurement Regulations”), setting forth the World Bank’s policy on conflict of interest. A Consultant will be selected in accordance with the Approved Selection Method for Individual Consultants set out in the clause 7.34 of the World Bank Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers. 

 

Further information can be obtained at the address below during office hours 0800 to 1700 hours:

Eastern Caribbean Partial Credit Guarantee Corporation

Brid Rock, Basseterre,

St. Kitts.

Expressions of interest must be delivered in a written form by e-mail by August 11th, 2021, to [email protected]

 

For further information, please contact:

Carmen Gomez-Trigg                                                            Bernard Thomas

Chief Executive Officer                                                          Chief Financial Officer

Tel: 868-620-8144                                                                  Tel: 869-765-2385

Email: [email protected]                                          [email protected]